As originally posted to the crossword-games-pro (CGP) mailing list.
From: jac@doe.carleton.ca (James A. Cherry)
Matt: Turn 1 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt ADGHINN 0 ----------------------------- Joel ACDFLUY 0 1|= ' = ' =| 2| - " " - | 8d HANDING +82 82 3| - ' ' - | 4|' - ' - '| Best. 5| - - | 6| " " " " | 7| ' ' ' ' | 8|= ' - ' =| 9| ' ' ' ' | 10| " " " " | 11| - - | 12|' - ' - '| 13| - ' ' - | 14| - " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Joel: Turn 1 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Matt EEIOSVX 82 ----------------------------- -> Joel ACDFLUY 0 1|= ' = ' =| 2| - " " - | 9i YUCA +25 25 3| - ' ' - | 4|' - ' - '| As Mark Nyman commented, Joel's best play 5| - - | is FUNDY# f6 (28) if he knows it. In 6| " " " " | sim, FUNDY# comes out about 6 better than 7| ' ' ' ' | FANCY f7 (29) and FADY# 9c (28), 11 8|= H A N D I N G ' =| better than FY# 9h (26), and 14 better 9| ' ' ' ' | than YUCA. I've found leaving an A at 7l 10| " " " " | or 9l exceedingly dangerous in my own 11| - - | play because it's so easy to get nailed 12|' - ' - '| with a large four-letter play at 8l. 13| - ' ' - | 14| - " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Matt: Turn 2 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt EEIOSVX 82 ----------------------------- Joel DDEFILT 25 1|= ' = ' =| 2| - " " - | f4 VIXEN +31 113 3| - ' ' - | 4|' - ' - '| Best. Thanks to Adam Logan for noting 5| - - | EVOE# 8l (27); it sims 1.5 worse than 6| " " " " | Matt's chosen play. Again, I'd almost 7| ' ' ' ' | surely play EVOE# because I hate leaving 8|= H A N D I N G ' =| that damn 8l square open, but Matt did 9| ' ' Y U C A ' | the right thing. VOX 9c (31) is 2.5 10| " " " " | worse in sim. 11| - - | 12|' - ' - '| 13| - ' ' - | 14| - " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Joel: Turn 2 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Matt AAEIOOS 113 ----------------------------- -> Joel DDEFILT 25 1|= ' = ' =| 2| - " " - | 8l FLED +45 70 3| - ' ' - | 4|' - V ' - '| Joel misses DEADLIFT$ l7 (78). FLED is 5| - I - | second-best. 6| " X " " | 7| ' E ' ' ' | 8|= H A N D I N G ' =| 9| ' ' Y U C A ' | 10| " " " " | 11| - - | 12|' - ' - '| 13| - ' ' - | 14| - " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Matt: Turn 3 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt AAEIOOS 113 ----------------------------- Joel DEFINRT 70 1|= ' = ' =| 2| - " " - | 9c AIAS# +28 141 3| - ' ' - | 4|' - V ' - '| Another difficult choice which Matt gets 5| - I - | right. Maybe CIAO k9 (12) looks close to 6| " X " " | as good, and it is -- it's about 3.5 7| ' E ' ' ' | worse in sim. But AIAS# is right: it 8|= H A N D I N G F L E D| puts Matt up by 71 and turns over an 9| ' ' Y U C A ' | extra tile. Must draw blank! 10| " " " " | 11| - - | 12|' - ' - '| 13| - ' ' - | 14| - " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Joel: Turn 3 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Matt EJLOOOT 141 ----------------------------- -> Joel DEFINRT 70 1|= ' = ' =| 2| - " " - | 5e NIFTIER +40 110 3| - ' ' - | 4|' - V ' - '| There are no bingos at all in that rack. 5| - I - | Joel chooses NIFTIER correctly over 6| " X " " | ENFIRED# n8 (38), which scores 2.3 less 7| ' E ' ' ' | in simulation. FIND g5 (26) keeps DERT, 8|= H A N D I N G F L E D| and FID 10b (24) ENRT, but they're about 9| A I A S ' Y U C A ' | 3 and 5 points worse in sim. More to the 10| " " " " | point, Joel should be turning over tiles 11| - - | like mad to try to get a blank. 12|' - ' - '| 13| - ' ' - | 14| - " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Matt: Turn 4 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt EJLOOOT 141 ----------------------------- Joel ADIIIOR 110 1|= ' = ' =| 2| - " " - | n6 JOE +26 167 3| - ' ' - | 4|' - V ' - '| Best. DDBot also thought JOLE j2 (27) 5| N I F T I E R | was as good, but in sim, JOLE is 4.3 6| " X " " | worse. 7| ' E ' ' ' | 8|= H A N D I N G F L E D| 9| A I A S ' Y U C A ' | 10| " " " " | 11| - - | 12|' - ' - '| 13| - ' ' - | 14| - " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Joel: Turn 4 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Matt ELOORTZ 167 ----------------------------- -> Joel ADIIIOR 110 1|= ' = ' =| 2| - " " - | h1 IDIOT +21 131 3| - ' ' - | 4|' - V ' - '| Best. DIVI# 4d (23) sims 1.7 back, and 5| N I F T I E R | OIDIA o6 (17) sims 2.2 back. Besides, 6| " X " J | four-tile turnover is good with no blanks 7| ' E ' ' ' O | yet seen. 8|= H A N D I N G F L E D| 9| A I A S ' Y U C A ' | 10| " " " " | 11| - - | 12|' - ' - '| 13| - ' ' - | 14| - " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Matt: Turn 5 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt ELOORTZ 167 ----------------------------- Joel ACGIORT 131 1|= ' I ' =| 2| - " D " - | o4 ZOO +31 198 3| - ' I ' - | 4|' - V O - '| There's no A for ZOOLATER. Matt's only 5| N I F T I E R | other reasonable choice is TOZE 10k (38), 6| " X " J | but ZOO's ELRT keep places it ahead in 7| ' E ' ' ' O | sim by 0.7 after 2000 1-move. 8|= H A N D I N G F L E D| 9| A I A S ' Y U C A ' | 10| " " " " | 11| - - | 12|' - ' - '| 13| - ' ' - | 14| - " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Joel: Turn 5 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Matt BEHLLRT 198 ----------------------------- -> Joel ACGIORT 131 1|= ' I ' =| 2| - " D " - | b8 ARGOTIC$ +83 214 3| - ' I ' - | 4|' - V O - Z| Best. ORGASTIC is the only eight. 5| N I F T I E R O| 6| " X " J O| 7| ' E ' ' ' O | 8|= H A N D I N G F L E D| 9| A I A S ' Y U C A ' | 10| " " " " | 11| - - | 12|' - ' - '| 13| - ' ' - | 14| - " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Matt: Turn 6 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt BEHLLRT 198 ----------------------------- Joel ?ADEOQV 214 1|= ' I ' =| 2| - " D " - | a5 HERB +39 237 3| - ' I ' - | 4|' - V O - Z| BETHRALL# doesn't play, but Matt misses 5| N I F T I E R O| BERTH a4 (54). BETH a5 (42) is second by 6| " X " J O| a long shot. 7| ' E ' ' ' O | 8|= A H A N D I N G F L E D| 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | 10| G " " " | 11| O - - | 12|' T - ' - '| 13| I - ' ' - | 14| C " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Joel: Turn 6 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Matt AEILLMT 237 ----------------------------- -> Joel ?ADEOQV 214 1|= ' I ' =| 2| - " D " - | 3g QI# +21 235 3| - ' I ' - | 4|' - V O - Z| Joel's turnover last turn rewards him 5|H N I F T I E R O| with a blank this turn. I imagine I'd 6|E " X " J O| have played the same thing over the 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | board, but sim says DEV$ 10h (36) is 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| better by 6 points. There's something to 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | be said for QuOAD# b2 (48), which comes 10| G " " " | out 2.5 better than QI# -- turn over five 11| O - - | tiles and try to draw the other blank 12|' T - ' - '| while scoring well. 13| I - ' ' - | 14| C " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Matt: Turn 7 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt AEILLMT 237 ----------------------------- Joel ?ADEEOV 235 1|= ' I ' =| 2| - " D " - | b1 MALLET +29 266 3| - Q I ' - | 4|' - V O - Z| The only bingo, METALLIC, doesn't play. 5|H N I F T I E R O| This is an interesting position. DDBot 6|E " X " J O| wanted LAM b4 (26), Maven wanted MALLET 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | (there are three A's and one I unseen) 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| over MILLET. I agree with turnover here 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | since no blanks have been seen. Sim says 10| G " " " | MALLET and MILLET are best and 11| O - - | indistinguishable, LAM is 1.2 behind, 12|' T - ' - '| and ITEM 10g (30) is 3.5 behind. Another 13| I - ' ' - | nice play by Matt. 14| C " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Joel: Turn 7 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Matt EGIIOST 266 ----------------------------- -> Joel ?ADEEOV 235 1|= M ' I ' =| 2| A " D " - | 1a AMOVE# +42 277 3| L - Q I ' - | 4|' L - V O - Z| There are no sevens in that rack, but the 5|H E N I F T I E R O| nine OSPD eights and the two OSW-only 6|E T X " J O| eights (EVOCATED# and OVERREAD#) don't 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | fit. Joel's reasonable choices are 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| AMOVE#, AMOVED#, EMOVE#, and EMOVED#; 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | there are five E's and two A's unseen. 10| G " " " | Simulation says AMOVED# is best, with 11| O - - | EMOVED# about 0.5 behind, AMOVE# 1.5 12|' T - ' - '| behind, and EMOVE# 5.1 behind. I thought 13| I - ' ' - | it was interesting that AMOVE# for 42 is 14| C " " - | is only 1.5 worse than AMOVED# for 48 -- 15|= ' = ' =| ?DE is quite a bit better than ?E here. ----------------------------- Matt: Turn 8 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt EGIIOST 266 ----------------------------- Joel ?DENRSW 277 1|A M O V E I ' =| 2| A " D " - | a11 GIO# +13 279 3| L - Q I ' - | 4|' L - V O - Z| DDBot wanted ZOOID o4 (17); with this 5|H E N I F T I E R O| play, Matt gives himself a bingo with 6|E T X " J O| 12 of the 37 unseen tiles (DPNRS?). 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | GIO# is certainly strong with its EIST 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| keep; I'm not sure which of the 10l and 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | a11 placements is better at this score. 10| G " " " | Sim says the 10l placement beats the a11 11| O - - | placement by 2.6, which in turn beats 12|' T - ' - '| ZOOID by 3.6, though I'm not sure sim is 13| I - ' ' - | much use here. 14| C " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Joel: Turn 8 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Matt EEEISTU 279 ----------------------------- -> Joel ?DENRSW 277 1|A M O V E I ' =| 2| A " D " - | 1g WIDeNERS +62 339 3| L - Q I ' - | 4|' L - V O - Z| Joel wisely resists INDoWERS* 1h (92), 5|H E N I F T I E R O| which is no good. His is the highest- 6|E T X " J O| scoring play along with DISoWNER# and 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | WINDoRES#. 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | 10| G " " " | 11|G O - - | 12|I T - ' - '| 13|O I - ' ' - | 14| C " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Matt: Turn 9 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt EEEISTU 279 ----------------------------- Joel AKLMNSW 339 1|A M O V E W I D e N E R S =| 2| A " D " - | 10i EE# +16 295 3| L - Q I ' - | 4|' L - V O - Z| Another correct play by Matt in a tough 5|H E N I F T I E R O| position. CUTIE k9 (14) is not a bad 6|E T X " J O| choice, though sim rates it worse by 4 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | points. 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | 10| G " " " | 11|G O - - | 12|I T - ' - '| 13|O I - ' ' - | 14| C " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Joel: Turn 9 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Matt EEISTUY 295 ----------------------------- -> Joel AKLMNSW 339 1|A M O V E W I D e N E R S =| 2| A " D " - | 4j MAWK# +32 371 3| L - Q I ' - | 4|' L - V O - Z| Maven (and I believe Adam Logan) wanted 5|H E N I F T I E R O| MAWKS# 11e (35); I'm remembering the 6|E T X " J O| reason as defense, but I don't see row 11 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | as a serious bingo threat. I suspect 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| Maven is going for turnover to try to 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | draw that second blank, which is 10| G " E E " | certainly not unreasonable. Sim places 11|G O - - | MAWK# ahead of WALK 4j (29) by 0.3 and 12|I T - ' - '| ahead of MAWKS# 11e (35) by 1.8. 13|O I - ' ' - | 14| C " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Matt: Turn 10 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt EEISTUY 295 ----------------------------- Joel BLNPSUU 371 1|A M O V E W I D e N E R S =| 2| A " D " - | 11a GOUTY +18 313 3| L - Q I ' - | Unseen: AEOUU BLNNPPRRTT? Bag: AEO NNPRRTT? 4|' L - V O M A W K Z| 5|H E N I F T I E R O| DDbot says the correct play was UEY# 6j 6|E T X " J O| (18) keeping EIST, though a good case can 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | be made for GOUTY keeping EEIS, which 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| scores the same and keeps more vowels 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | with consonant-heavy unseen tiles. 10| G " E E " | Moreover, GOUTY opens an easy bingo line 11|G O - - | for Matt. 12|I T - ' - '| 13|O I - ' ' - | 14| C " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Joel: Turn 10 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Matt EEEIRRS 313 ----------------------------- -> Joel BLNPSUU 371 1|A M O V E W I D e N E R S =| 2| A " D " - | 10l PULU# +16 387 3| L - Q I ' - | Unseen: AEEEIO NPRRSTT? Bag: AO NPTT? 4|' L - V O M A W K Z| 5|H E N I F T I E R O| UNPLUMBS# is the only bingo in those 6|E T X " J O| letters. Joel must be nervous looking 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | into the unseen tiles. One could make a 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| case for PUB 10l (21), but if Joel wants 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | to block DIS- bingos at o8, I can't blame 10| G " E E " | him. 11|G O U T Y - | 12|I T - ' - '| 13|O I - ' ' - | 14| C " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Matt: Turn 11 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt EEEIRRS 313 ----------------------------- Joel ABNNOST 387 1|A M O V E W I D e N E R S =| 2| A " D " - | 6d REX +12 325 3| L - Q I ' - | Unseen: AO BNNPSTT? Bag: PT? 4|' L - V O M A W K Z| 5|H E N I F T I E R O| Maybe REV 4d (14) for two more points is 6|E T X " J O| better, but the idea is right: keep EEIRS 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | while leaving one in the bag and hope 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| like hell. Matt has a 27/45 chance of 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | bingoing at 12d/e or 14b in the 10 unseen 10| G " E E P U L U| tiles; given the actual bag, he can 11|G O U T Y - | definitely bingo in either place, no 12|I T - ' - '| matter what he draws (PT gives CREPIEST, 13|O I - ' ' - | P? and T? give lots of choices). 14| C " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Joel: Turn 11 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Matt EEIPRST 325 ----------------------------- -> Joel ABNNOST 387 1|A M O V E W I D e N E R S =| 2| A " D " - | h10 BATONS +32 419 3| L - Q I ' - | Unseen: EEI PRST? Bag: ? 4|' L - V O M A W K Z| 5|H E N I F T I E R O| Joel correctly reasons he must score lots 6|E T R E X " J O| and pray Matt can't beat him with the 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | bingo he surely holds. Two moves win 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| every endgame for Joel: BATONS h10 (32) 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | (Joel wins by at least 4) and UNBANS$ o10 10| G " E E P U L U| (33) (Joel wins by at least 3). BANJO 6k 11|G O U T Y - | (19) loses if Joel draws the P, and the 12|I T - ' - '| cute DAUNTONS# o8 (27) loses if Joel 13|O I - ' ' - | draws E or I. 14| C " " - | 15|= ' = ' =| ----------------------------- Matt: Turn 12 a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o -> Matt EEIPRST 325 ----------------------------- Joel N? 419 1|A M O V E W I D e N E R S =| 2| A " D " - | 13g POETRIES +78 403 3| L - Q I ' - | (N?) +2 405 4|' L - V O M A W K Z| 5|H E N I F T I E R O| Matt's play is best, as was POETISER$ in 6|E T R E X " J O| the same place. 7|R ' E ' ' ' O | 8|B A H A N D I N G F L E D| Final score: Matt 405, Joel 419 9| R A I A S ' Y U C A ' | 10| G " B E E P U L U| Matt: 89.9%, Joel: 89.4%, says DDBot. 11|G O U T Y A - | 12|I T - T - '| 13|O I - ' O ' - | 14| C " N " - | 15|= ' S ' =| -----------------------------
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